As with any future the Colorado Springs market forecast for the future can only be speculated on. In the
Semiannual Colorado Springs Single Family Housing Market report for the 1st Quarter of 2007 by David Bamberger & Associates in May of 2007 they propose two separate scenarios that may come to pass for the future housing conditions of Colorado Springs. The first scenario, they state that if the economy in the U.S. slows down and goes into recession by the middle of 2008 then the Colorado Springs job growth will slow down and mortgage rates will rise. The second scenario is more favorable. If the economy in the U.S. sees continued growth, then the housing market in Colorado Springs will also rise. Much of the second, more favorable, scenario will depend highly on the military presence here in the Springs.
With the defense contractors and military making up a significant part of the jobs here in Colorado Springs most of the people are waiting for the new troops to arrive in 2007-2010. In 2005 the Army announced plans to bring in about 8,000 to 10,000 more troops to Fort Carson as part of it's realignment of commands. Movement of new units to Fort Carson started in 2006, but the big increase in troops assigned to the post will not take place until 2009 and 2010. Housing needed to accommodate the expected increase at Fort Carson of 8,000 to 10,000 troops, 4,000 to 5,000 spouses and 7,000 to 9,000 children is estimated to include:
• 400 to 600 family units on post
• 1,500 to 2,000 barracks spaces on post
• 1,000 to 1,500 owner units off post
• 4,000 to 5,000 renter units off post
The good news for the Real Estate industry is that these new troops will all need places to live. With both the new builds and re-sale homes on the decline the new troops and their families will certainly help the housing market. New single family home construction is currently on a decline of 44.7% compared to the same period of 2006. It doesn't get much better for the resale homes either. The sale of single family homes was 2,233 in the 1st quarter of 2007, down from 2,463 in the 1st quarter of 2006 a decline of 9.3%, (reported by the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors), and the number of active listings of single family and patio homes in March 2007 totaled 5,659, up significantly from 4,262 in September 2005, an increase of 32.8%.
If David Bamberger & Associates "Sustainable Growth "scenario plays out then we will all be looking towards the brighter side of the future. The job growth and military transfers will bring new buyers into the market in the last half of 2007 and through 2010 with Single family permits for new build increasing to 3,000 units in 2007, then, increase significantly to 4,000 units in 2008, and up each year.
· Information from the Semiannual Colorado Springs Single Family Housing Market report for the 1st Quarter of 2007 by David Bamberger & Associates. The views expressed should be considered the opinion of the author.